This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these ancient cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and enjoy the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I believe we ought to have a big edge this week should we put in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on these names they have not heard and will just be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit on a big score. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card this Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Any time I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I love to stack it into my cash games and lock those factors. I believe this battle will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we can see multiple knockdowns too that can help, but I believe we easily get over 100+ points together with both of these guys. Let us let everybody else make the mistakes and we can lock at a 100+ points and a win, and then we just have to find another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a win. He has a very slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I presume he will pick up advance points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning the feet, he shoots for takedowns every struggle. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go for it himself and it’ll cost him. I think we can observe a 1st round submission here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of the week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun can acquire a KO here against Smith, who is carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the past couple of years but I believe he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, however I believe you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own picks being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It’s tough to choose one favorite fade this week however I will select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I think he’ll use takedowns to acquire the choice win here. So, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he does not chain together takedowns and that he ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much completing ability and that I really don’t see him getting a entry. But I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we’ve seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game titles for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
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